| Introduction – This article is mostly for the USA | | | | lose and will be trying to play I hope it gets better |
| but will have relevance for other countries. We are | | | | versus rioting and looting. This leads to no utilities, no |
| going to look at civil unrest and what can trigger it. | | | | car, no phone, no Internet, no cable TV and all the |
| Definition of Civil Unrest – This is not a revolution | | | | other things people are accustomed to. |
| or violent overthrow of the government. It is a | | | | Unemployment insurance is usually far from enough |
| breakdown of law and order. The symptoms of civil | | | | money but it can soften the blow a little. This is a |
| unrest follow: crowds gathering and engaging in | | | | soft trigger that leads to other more substantial |
| violence such as starting fires, throwing rocks, | | | | triggers and is common. |
| destroying vehicles, attacking cars with motorists | | | | No Medical Coverage – When people see they |
| inside, marching outside of government buildings and | | | | cannot get medical treatment without going to an |
| acting in a disorderly and destructive fashion, crowds | | | | emergency room for many hours they get volatile |
| throwing rocks and other projectiles. Civil unrest is | | | | and ready for not nice demonstrations. This is a |
| more than just unhappy people. It is when these | | | | medium grade trigger and common. |
| unhappy people demonstrate their unhappiness with | | | | No Car – When people lose their job they often |
| violence and destruction of property so as to send a | | | | fall behind on their car payments and then have their |
| signal to the government that they had better meet | | | | car repossessed. This in many cases ends the |
| their wishes and fast. Civil unrest is not revolutionary | | | | prospects for getting a job and they go down into a |
| behavior. Revolutionary behavior generally focuses | | | | freefall with things going from bad to worse. This is a |
| sharply on specific targets; it is not random violence | | | | minor trigger but common. |
| or destruction of property. Revolutionary behavior | | | | No Food – Unlikely in USA. They can get free |
| has a lot of let’s call it propaganda for lack of a | | | | meals at shelters, groceries handouts etc. There are |
| better word. This is where the revolutionary forces | | | | a lot of homeless people in USA, millions actually, but |
| tend to publish material and make speeches to | | | | hungry people are rare. Hungry people are very hard |
| support their political position and win over converts. | | | | to control. After 24 hours they are going crazy with |
| The people the revolutionary forces are working | | | | hunger and will take whatever action they need to |
| against generally try to counter this propaganda with | | | | get food. Think about how they will react when they |
| their own propaganda. Revolutionary forces generally | | | | see their small children wasting away due to a lack of |
| are trying to win the masses to their side so they will | | | | food. Homeless people are not so hard to control. |
| try to refrain from any random or indiscriminate | | | | They get absorbed in the daily hassles of street |
| violence. This sometimes gets forgotten as | | | | survival, which tends to occupy their time. This would |
| revolutions intensify and the revolutionaries resort to | | | | be a massive trigger but unlikely. |
| terrorism against those supporting the government | | | | Bank Closures – This will push many over the |
| they are trying to topple. This results in the people | | | | edge to break into disobedience to express their |
| being fearful of the government and the | | | | attitude towards the government. This sort of |
| revolutionaries, which becomes its own sort of | | | | behavior can be overcome by reopening the banks |
| nightmare. Revolutionary activities are generally timed | | | | but the damage can be massive until then. This is a |
| and staged precisely, civil unrest tends to be very | | | | big trigger and likely. |
| spontaneous. People participating in revolutions are | | | | Hyperinflation – If the value of the dollar plunges |
| generally trained to varying extents and highly | | | | then the people will be robbed of a major portion of |
| motivated risking life and limb for their cause. Rioters | | | | their buying power. Lets say the dollar now buys |
| are often drunk or on drugs and have little idea why | | | | about $0.75 in Euros. One dollar gets $0.75 Euro. If |
| they are rioting other than to loot. Civil unrest is | | | | this goes to the point where one dollar buys $0.25 |
| frequently accompanied by looting of retail and | | | | Euros people lost two thirds of their buying power |
| wholesale stores and warehouses. People rioting will | | | | form now, much more if one were to go back two |
| often destroy their own neighborhoods leaving | | | | years. When they see the impact of this and |
| themselves without water, power, shelter, food etc. | | | | understand their standard of living dropped to that of |
| People demonstrating peacefully with signs and | | | | a third world laborer they will not be happy about it. |
| chanting is not civil unrest. | | | | This is a big trigger and likely. |
| Implications of Civil Unrest – Governments in | | | | Seeing Riots in Media – This is the trigger or |
| Europe have been facing this recently. Governments | | | | triggers. When they see riots then they are more |
| fear this tremendously. If they do not respond they | | | | willing to start or participate in one. Looting is |
| appear weak and the mobs get bolder and bolder | | | | productive and rewarding. Remember Hurricane |
| eventually destroying the government and replacing it | | | | Katrina and the looting. Even the police were looting |
| with chaos. If the government responds harshly they | | | | in uniform. This is a trigger that has not yet occurred |
| turn the people against the government even more. | | | | but is likely to occur in the future. |
| If people get killed and seriously hurt by the | | | | When Does Major Civil Unrest Occur – Generally |
| government, these people and their friends and | | | | in the hot summer months. |
| families will always have resentment towards the | | | | What Will the Government Do – Not sure? Use |
| government and this can have serious implications if | | | | Hurricane Katrina for your model. By the time the |
| there are enough of such people. If the government | | | | government responded things were really bad. If |
| contains the riots to the areas where the rioters live, | | | | there were one riot at a time the government would |
| think the poorer sections of the cities, then the | | | | be major. They would take police action with all sorts |
| rioters will destroy their own neighborhoods only. This | | | | of technology to break it up. If the people get |
| was the position the government took with the riots | | | | brutalized then a deep hatred of the government will |
| in the 1960’s and 1970’s. | | | | set in amongst those people who got hurt. They will |
| If the rioters venture into the wealthier | | | | be most unlikely to take a position of well I got what |
| neighborhoods and go looting bloodshed will result. | | | | I deserved and now it is time to and be a good |
| The wealthier people have guns as a rule and will | | | | submissive citizen again. The government will most |
| shoot at the crowds if they were not able to get | | | | likely not have taken any action to remove or |
| out before the trouble started. A lot of rioters will | | | | correct the triggers causing the riots. If riots break |
| get shot. A lot of homes will be burned. Rioters will | | | | out at same time or close to same time in numerous |
| break into many homes resulting in murder, rape, fire, | | | | cities then the government response will be weak |
| robbery, etc. If the rioters become armed from | | | | and poorly orchestrated because their resources, |
| looting stores that sell guns or homes that have | | | | command centers, supply reserves, troops, |
| firearms then it can get very ugly. Sure two or three | | | | communications, transportation, food and medical |
| Apache attack helicopters can gun down thousands | | | | facilities etc. will all be stretched very thin. |
| of people in the streets but that will change things in | | | | What to Do – If you live in a city likely to be |
| a big way if the government demonstrates a | | | | subject to riots (see above triggers) pack a bailout |
| willingness to do this. | | | | backpack and leave it in the closet. Have emergency |
| Trigger Points – When the people have their | | | | supplies for a few days in it. Have one for each |
| basic needs taken away they become agitated and | | | | family member. If the electricity goes you will need |
| civil unrest can set in. The things that push people are | | | | cash to buy anything so keep a supply on hand. |
| numerous and we will name some of them but in all | | | | Study various escape routes to get out of town. |
| likelihood a combination of things will be taking place | | | | Decide on some likely places to retreat to. Consider |
| at the same time making it harder for the people | | | | securing your house with bars on windows and solid |
| affected. It is the combination of these triggers that | | | | steel doors. This may prevent looting. If you are in a |
| pushes people towards civil disobedience. | | | | rural area more than one tank of gas from a major |
| Eviction – When people lose their home by | | | | population center then you should be unaffected. |
| eviction as tenants of homeowners. After the | | | | When the rioting starts gangs may be driven out of |
| foreclosure process the eviction process begins. | | | | the rioting area and go roving around looking to keep |
| When people are without income and homeless they | | | | the looting and pillaging up. They would probably |
| will be prime candidates for civil unrest. They have | | | | never go further than a tank of gas will go. Gas |
| nothing to lose. This is a serious trigger and is | | | | stations may be closed to control this very thing. Gas |
| common. | | | | stations may shut out of fear on their own. Be |
| No Job – This is more of a pre-trigger. They still | | | | vigilant and remember the media may do a new |
| may have a home and a car so they have a lot to | | | | blackout on the events. |